MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 MARCH 2020
The S&P500 was down 15% for the week! The worst one week drop since 1987.
The Coronavirus hit Wall Street as well as main street and halted normal economic activity as we know it. The markets are in total uncertainty regarding the future hence the price drops.
As we are opening a new volatile week of trading, I would like to reiterate these insights:
- The fed proved once again they contribute to the short term volatility instead of doing their job and keep stability in the markets, firing their entire arsenal at a problem that has a financial base (and a big psychological base) is definitely an overshoot;
- Traders are pricing the slowdown that we are facing (and will continue to) following the government reaction to the coronavirus, this will stay at least unto Q2-Q3;
- Oil prices are too low, selling it at these ridiculous prices will hurt oil-related companies bottom line, cheap is not always good;
- The market will recover, participate and don’t anticipate.
AlphaOverBeta Next Week Forecast
Our model portfolios are open for subscribers to AlphaOverBeta.net
AlphaOverBeta sectors ranking
Below you may find our leading and lagging sectors.
As usual, we are looking for sectors that are picking up on momentum.
Consumer staples, Healthcare(!), dropped but not as low as the rest of the sectors, these sectors will return to normal first and should be closely monitored.
The oil and gas sector is in a short position in our commodities portfolio.
AlphaOverBeta ranking in Metals
Gold, investors safe heaven, took a hit with the markets, following the fed rate cuts we anticipate a rebound in gold in the longterm.
We are short copper as it is lagging the rest of the commodities
AlphaOverBeta ranking in Currencies
The dollar had a nice rally to the upside which provided some support for the portfolio
Watch the Chinese yuan as it started to climb up, we will watch closely.