MARKET OUTLOOK, 09 MARCH 2020
The S&P500 was up 0.6% for the week , this number hides the fact that the market was extremely volatile this week, more than 3 times the volatility of the last 6 months, the market stayed within the 2900-3100 boundaries but every day saw a different market with no direction and high volatility, as long as the coronavirus fear and the uncertainty about the fatality rate, rate of diseases spread and economic damage remains, the market will continue to wobble until some news will launch a new rally.
AlphaOverBeta Next Week Forecast
The market will continue to move sideways searching for directions, we are neutral to short equities but long commodities such as gold, solver, etc ..
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AlphaOverBeta sectors ranking
Below you may find our leading and lagging sectors.
As usual, we are looking for sectors that are picking up on momentum.
Utilities and consumer staples which lead the market, have a slightly positive momentum and took the lesser hit, we continue to iterate this for weeks, these are the leading sectors of the bull run and are forecasted to continue to do so.
The oil and gas sector is suffering from negative momentum for a long time and is in a short position in our commodities portfolio.
Specific stocks in these sectors may be found in our detailed alerts and stock picks service
AlphaOverBeta in Metals
Palladium and Gold continue to lead the metals with strong momentum and are forecasted to continue to do so in the next few weeks, there has been a lot of talk about the downturn in GLD, this is just a correction to the general uptrend and should be regarded as such.
We are short copper as it is lagging the rest of the commodities
AlphaOverBeta in Currencies
The dollar USDU and the Chinese Yuan (!!!) are on an uptrend, the dollar has corrected a nice move up and the FXF spiked up, both two different moves but are forecasted to continue to move up.
The Australian dollar had issued a short trigger in our currency portfolio, so did CEW which broker significant resistance levels.